Friday, 28 August 2015

Big Graph


  How much is a Big Sample Size?

   Since I started coaching people have send me their graphs, some to show the wonders my coaching has donne to their game, some to complain. Very interesting graph, but I havent seen a single one of 20k+ hands, not a single one. So today I wanna send a new graph for you guys, it is only at nl50, the last 240k hands I plaied at this stake level: 


 Lots of problems with this graph, for instance my red line is way worst than it was one year ago, maybe a result of some sick multi table, maybe in indicator that I really should be working more on my game, I need to check this out. One thing is a sure, I'm a solid winner at 5bb/100 at this stake level, playing the way I play with as many tables as I play.
Ok so seen the graph as a whole we can pretty much see a straight line going up but what happens if we take a look at some specific instances of 20k hands? In some cases I'll be losing, in fact I can see at least one sample where I'm losing quite a lot, but on the other side of the coin we can see some sick win rate of over 30bb/100! So I'm a god who plays poker or a break even player? The true is that if u take 20k hands or less you can find pretty much anything here.
Where are you going with all this discussion Willian? Well I guess I just wanted to show people what is variance :D So next time you look at a 20k- graph, please think seriously if this game is for you, because you can and will run super hot and super cold in those small samples, but in the long run the reality apears. How much is enought? People have been saying 100k hands is the long run, sure no 100k graph of mine is equal, but they all more or less show how well I have been doing for the month.

 Best Regards and good luck at the tables!